1 in a million is still too low a chance. The noise level is extremely high; at such a ridiculous level, it's easily possible that players could perform the trial (whether it's killing monsters, or farming a particular spot) 2 million times- twice the 'probability' and acquire nothing. Especially given how many players there are.
It's been some time since I studied probability theory, so I can't demonstrate the maths off the top of my head, but many of these things are quite obvious.
In general, I'd avoid chances of more than 1 in 100; 1%. That way, it's relatively replicable.
Essentially, in my view, if the noise level is at the point where the players couldn't determine the drop rate accurately, it's too high. 1 in 100 is already barely achievable for most players, and we're talking about a drop rate that is 10,000 times lower.
If you want any guarantee that the players will get some item from random drops, well, you'd need to do a fair bit of maths, taking all the items into consideration.
But a greater number of small chances is less likely to align fairly than a smaller number of bigger chances (assuming these chances are proportional to each other; x number of y chances is more random than y number of x chances, if y<x).
Essentially, 100 1-in-100 chances is more random than 2 1-in-2 chances.
There's also no way of determining whether an item is a hoax or not; imagine being convinced to farm one particular area a million times for an item that doesn't exist.
For good reasons, it's against the rules of all AE games to redistribute or sell accounts; but manufacturing rarity enables people to create accounts to farm the item, which they may then sell. That sort of thing is completely illegal now (at least in Australia), but it still happens.
Once monetary value is associated with these products, gambling laws come in at full force. If this became a problem (I suspect AQ3D will be too small for this, though), the game would be banned and/or fined.
What value is associated with an account that has 2 1 in a million drops? Is that really a question we want answered within AQ3D?
< Message edited by Shiny_Underpants -- 6/9/2017 10:34:37 >