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RE: The Brexit Referendum: In or Out?

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6/28/2016 2:34:22   


Then we have the idea of the US, where there is a very real chance that Trump will become president, making trade deals with us. Obama's "back of the queue" remark is really irrelevant at this point, and indeed he has U-turned on it ( seen here), while Trump I know plans trade deals as a priority with the U.K., and supported Brexit. I don't know Hillary's view, but no doubt someone can enlighten me.

she's trying to exploit trump's views on it to show why he's unfit for the white house.
not surprising considering how much of a witch she is and she doesn't really care who she steps on to get into office. i'd like to call her something more potent, but alas forum rules.
bernie on the other hand has yet to state any opinion on the matter other then how it's not going well for everyone.
the way i see it, it would be best to have bernie as president with trump as vise president & top advisor or vise-versa
AQ DF MQ AQW Epic  Post #: 26
6/29/2016 17:06:29   
Hopeful Guy

Hope Upbringer! (DragonFable)

Regarding your hope of Bernie/Trump: frankly, that's almost certainly not going to happen, however much you hope for it. So Hillary is anti-Brexit and tries to polarise people against Trump for it? The US Presidential race gets ever more toxic...

In other news, the FTSE 100 is above its pre-vote level, Osborne u-turned on all his pledges of doom and the neutral and absolutely-not-in-anyway-biased BBC have started talking about hate crime being up by a third after the vote. Really, though, I would prefer raw numbers- a third could be 6 to 8 or 60,000 to 80,000, but the latter is obviously more of an issue. I haven't seen any evidence of it at all here in London. The media seriously needs to kick the bias and give us the whole facts, and I don't just refer to this one vote as evidence of it.
DF  Post #: 27
7/2/2016 1:10:58   
Oliver Bell
AK in Limbo!

Ok I am going to place a quick counter arguement.

Merkel, who is the de facto leader of the EU given the extent of German influence there

I think you overestimate German influence, Germany is a powerful member but any negotiations would require appeasing far more than just Germany, France and Spain for instance would be necessary for a deal. Spain recently renewed its calls for us to return Gibraltar, so our relations are a little tense at least.


I can't see any tariffs being imposed that would significantly reduce EU trade. It was mentioned before the vote by some EU officials, but that was really only a fear tactic.
The problem is letting us leave with a beneficial deal would only encourage other countries to do the same. It is in the interests of the EU Commission, who represent the interests of the EU as a whole, that we get a significantly worse deal in order to deter any further moves from other countries to leave, you yourself claimed these views have gained credibility; to stop it they just need to be able to point to us and and say "look what happened to the UK".


while the prospect of making deals with China, India and the East, a faster-growing area of exports should easily be enough to counteract this

As an EU member we had trade deals with these countries, now we have to renegotiate with far less to offer. The UK has a strong import market but it is still just a small island with a population that is a mere fraction of China or India; those countries would call most of the shots in any such negotiation. We also have a 2 year time limit from around October or November, whenever Article 50 is activated, to reach a deal with the EU and 150+ countries or we will lose access to their markets. Trade agreements can take decades to negotiate in worst cases and around 2 years in the best scenarios, so we will have a time pressure on us during all these negotiations.


Then we have the idea of the US, where there is a very real chance that Trump will become president,
Seriously hope not, the man does not have the means to back up his rhetoric, let alone his promises during the nomination campaign.


As for environmental and worker's rights regulations, it is a relative certainty that measures will be put in place in this country to that effect. Just because we left the EU, that doesn't mean we won't legislate for ideas which everyone finds important.
With the Conservatives in charge? They have donators and MPs who would love to tear down our Human Rights legislation, one of their leadership candidates even said we should leave the European Convention on Human Rights. When it comes to environmental legislation, we have our own national laws but they are not as broad as the EU regulations, they only cover individual species or areas of significant interest while the EU law covers whole eco-systems under different criteria. Much of our law in the UK is outdated but does not get replaced due to limited time available to Parliament and because it won't get the Party in charge any headlines, positive press or appeal to its supporters, our Offences against the Persons Act for instance has had judges and lawers calling for major updates for at least 3 decades.

Digital X

We pay 50 odd million to Europe a day.. or something like that, far too much

Guessing this is based of UKIP's £350 million a week figure, they were told not to use this because it is a misleading number. First we get a rebate before we even pay the funds to the EU in the first place, that makes it more like £200 million a week. Then we get money back in various schemes, including research, university, Agriculture and fishing subsidies etc. Even without this the amount we pay though is mere change from the govenment's perspective, less than 1% of GDP if I remember correctly.

< Message edited by Oliver Bell -- 7/2/2016 1:20:12 >
AQ DF MQ AQW Epic  Post #: 28
7/2/2016 13:16:25   
Hopeful Guy

Hope Upbringer! (DragonFable)

Some rebuttal to the counter-argument:

1. Germany is the largest EU economy by quite a long way. In fact, you mentioned France and Spain; Germany's economy is only 9% smaller than the economies of those two countries combined. As such, Merkel gains a huge degree of influence in the EU- think Greek debt crisis, where Germany was the largest lender and as such held all the chips in negotiations. Germany also has the largest number of MEPs, but what increases German influence so much is that their government has far more credibility than the others in the Eurozone. France? Hollande has set records for the worst approval rating for a French president ever, and won't be around for long, with Le Pen (a Eurosceptic), Sarkozy, and Juppé (both of Les Républicains) in the frame to replace him. Italy? Beppe Grillo's Eurosceptic 5 Star Movement are suddenly ahead in polls, and, although an election isn't due for two years, there is certainly pressure brewing on the government. Merkel is the longest serving EU leader and has more influence and respect than you realise.

2. You say that giving us a terrible deal is a way to deter Euroscepticism through being able to say 'look what happened to the UK'. I would counter that the powers of the EU can simply not afford to do that. If the EU imposes tariffs on the UK, the UK is fully within its rights to impose tariffs on EU products and cut tariffs from CET levels on products from the Commonwealth, for example. The result of all this would be that EU trade with the UK diminishes, and since the UK is a net importer, this is a bigger blow to the EU than it is to us. Since the CET has long encouraged trade diversion, the other argument that we would see prices rise for goods that we import is simply unsubstantiated; we would have greater ability to import from other countries that produce at cheaper rates than the EU. With a global recession in 2016-17 definitely on the cards, can the EU really afford to hurt its own economy just to set an example? And if they did, would it really hurt the average person in the UK?

3. The UK has more influence than you realise. We are the 5th largest economy in the world, larger than India, and have a GDP per capita 5.5 times China's and 27 times India's (where, although poverty is rife, the wealth of the population is growing, and the young population is really driving growth- from personal experience, as my relatives live there). What this means is:
  • The UK presents a very good opportunity for goods to be sold from these countries, making it very desirable as an important export market for both countries, and
  • The growing countries are demanding higher-end goods and services more than ever, things which the UK specialises in (particularly services).

    Why, then, is there any motive for either party to not desire a trade deal, and why do you think that the UK will be easy to push around?

    4. Cameron did propose a British Bill of Rights in the manifesto, and if we no longer have the ECHR, then one major obstacle to that is removed. Theresa May (most probable PM currently) did mention something about it as well.

    5. 1% of GDP is not 'mere change'. £9 billion, which is the figure you are probably thinking of (less than 1%) isn't huge in comparison to the GDP, but is 12% of the budget deficit, and is enough for a 7.5% increase on the NHS budget- not huge, but not nothing either. That money could well improve patient care to some extent. Granted, as countless people have said, it is the Tories who need to take the blame for the situation and not the EU, but money is money, and leaving the EU gives us more money in raw terms.
  • DF  Post #: 29
    7/2/2016 22:20:24   
    Digital X

    Beep Beep! ArchKnight AQ / ED


    Dunno what it was based off, just what I heard from a few people. I've no idea and interest in politics at all.

    Wouldn't surprise me if that was the number but whatever.
    AQ DF MQ AQW Epic  Post #: 30
    7/4/2016 13:54:50   
    Onyx Darkmatter

    So Nigel Farage is resigning because he's already completed his task in Brexit. To be honest, I'm quite surprised about this (although I've heard this was kinda planned prior the Referendum), because I thought he could be the one to "lead" the nation in another direction.
    I mean, think of it this way: It's similar to that of George Washington where he led and fought the British and eventually became the very first president of the United States.

    < Message edited by Onyx Darkmatter -- 7/4/2016 13:56:27 >
    AQ DF MQ  Post #: 31
    7/5/2016 22:09:18   

    I think it's because he's a coward that doesn't want to deal with the actual fallout of Brexit. No one wants to actually invoke Article 50, because that would require going through British law from the bottom up and rewriting wholesale, presumably to try and maintain a favorable relationship with the EU. Which really isn't going to happen.
    AQ DF MQ  Post #: 32
    2/10/2019 11:59:16   
    Onyx Darkmatter

    I know this is an old thread and my intentions isn't to necro it, but Brexit day is almost there by the end of next month, and there's no deal that will pass as of now. I retract my statement: Brexit, especially a No-Deal/Hard Brexit, is a disaster for the U.K. because they're then subject to the WTO rules by default (and just to give you an idea: no country on this planet are under these rules because they trade with other nations, even countries like North Korea and Venezuela don't want to deal with the WTO standards).
    But what's worse above all isn't that Brexit will hurt just the U.K., it will also hurt Ireland because of the Good Friday agreement that ended the decades-long sectarian violence. There's no border that divides Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but with a No Deal scenario, a border will have to go up for Customs. That's why many companies are either stockpiling their goods, or they're moving out to other EU-zones like Dublin, Paris, and Frankfurt; the rest of them will feel the horrible shock.

    Of course there's still some time left for the UK to pull up a deal for the EU, but they will have to be swift about it because once the clock strikes at 11:00 PM on March 29, all the trade agreements that the U.K. benefits from the EU will disappear and will shrink the U.K.'s economy by around 8% (to give you an idea: the financial crisis shrunk the U.K.'s economy by 2%).
    AQ DF MQ  Post #: 33
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