PD
Member
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So as the end of the contest is coming near next week, for those of you not on Discord, I've been doing a lot of number crunching and analysis behind the scenes. The tracker from last year which I have since revived along with a new set of gold contest predictors. What I'm sure most people are wondering is "how much is it going to take to place in the top 50 this year?" At least tentatively, the first project, the tracker as of this post, says it's closer to 29.3 billion, but my predictor, after you adjust it to the secondary pressure with a 7.5% adjustment (due to the stretch goal) says that the cutoff this year will be somewhere in the 28-28.5 billion range assuming the uplift is 50% this year (IE, the % increase over the average standard trend). If the behavior is like last year though the predicting models are more bearish believing the final tally will be somewhere in the 27-27.5b range (40% uplift, 7.5% adjustment). I'm pretty anxious to see where things stand after the contest. My analysis last year had mixed results of course, as I overpredicted by 6% from last years' tracker versus what the actual result was. But if I drop by the same 6.7% I did last year versus the value it is right now (29.3b), then the value is pretty close to the pattern from last year (~27.3b). As with all things, I think my tracker is as usual, overestimating, but I think my predictor is actually underestimating, so I believe that the true number is going to be somewhere in the middle of the ranges of 27-29b that my models are in between of. So boldly I'll say that the final number is going to be close to 28b gold. That aside, I've been playing this contest to exhaustion and I look forward to a very long and deserved break after all of this. Good luck to everyone!
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