Giras Wolfe > Luck, as it relates to the length of battles. (3/5/2011 2:59:11)

Today I got to thinking, why is it that going first, critting, or blocking makes so much difference in a battle? Actually, it has to do with the length of a battle. In AdventureQuest, for example, the battle length is much longer, averaging 20 to 100 turns (at level 98.) If you get critted or blocked by a monster in AQ, you don't even care? Why? Because in longer battles, the odds tend to balance out. But in Epicduel, depending on your build, battles last 4 to 10 turns. In epicduel, especially with agility forcing everyone into 95 and under hp builds, a single block, crit, or deflection can easily decide the match. But these blocks, crits, and deflections often do not match the stats of the players involved. Low support players often crit, deflect, and go first against high support ones. Why is this? It is based on a fundamental law of probability. Say, you have a coin with heads and tails. You could say that heads has a chance of 50% and tails has a chance of 50% of getting landed on when the coin is flipped. But, if you flip a coin two times, it is very likely you will get two heads or two tails. This is because probability numbers only average out at higher amounts. If you flip a coin twice you could easily end up with heads 100% of the time and tails 0% of the time. But if you flip a coin ten times, you will likely get 40% heads and 60% tails. If you flip a coin a hundred times, you will likely get 47% heads and 53% tails. The basic concept is that given base chances even out to match their stated percentages only after several trials. How does this apply to epicduel? Lets just take the block rate. Player A has higher dex, so he has a 30% chance to block and 70% chance to get hit. Player B has lower dex, and only a 10% chance to block and 90% chance to get hit. Every time a player strikes another, it is the equivalent of one coin flip. In the limited arena of an epicduel battle, however, there are only a few, say 5, "flips" which leaves the odds little room to balance out. Player B could get away with 1 block and player A could get one as well: 20% block, 80% hit for player A, and 20% block 80% hit for player B is the average you get for 5 strikes by each player. Effectively, it is very likely that these 2 players with very low and high stats will come out with the same results. Thus, due to the length of epicduel battles, odds are skewed and actual results are only slightly related to a players stats. This is actually a very serious problem because its hard to solve. One possible solution is to simply reduce all these chances, which would seriously impact the effectiveness of high dex and support builds. Another solution is to make epicduel battles last longer. How can we do this? We could reduce the damage of weapons and skills or allow high HP builds. Otherwise we will have to deal with luck governing our battles regardless of our carefully placed stats. If you can think of another solution to this probability problem, please do tell. If your brain is turned off by a % sign, just read through it again carefully and maybe get an actual coin and try it out. There is already a similar topic. Please use this Luck Discussion instead to prevent multiple similar topics. Locked! ~AVA



