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Sparticus -> What Are The Odds Of Doing Damage? (5/8/2011 16:01:04)
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In the last several weeks I've had to explain how damage is calculated, how defense and resistance effect damage and what are the chances of having certain amounts of damage done both to you and against you.
The easiest way to answer this question is to point you to the ED Wiki and tell you to go read but clearly that isn't working. So I wanted to give an example, show how I figured out the numbers, show my math and then explain what it means. If you don't understand what damage you can do and what damage can be done to you, you will have a tougher time winning here.
First off, nothing in this game is an absolute number. You'll notice that in this game everything is given in a range. Example 32-39 DEF or 29-33 +30 damage.
There is also a random number generator(RNG) that decides which exact number to use out of that range when calculating things. The random number generator(RNG) has just as much chance of picking the lowest number out of a range as is does picking the highest of any number in between. Those are the numbers that are used to calculate both damage and defense.
Here is an example: I have a BOT that does 29-33 +30 damage (59-63 damage). The guy I'm attacking has 32-39 defense.
Question 1: How much damage can I do at the most to this guy?
Answer 1: The most the RNG will pick as your possible damage is the highest number in your damage range or in this case 63. The lowest number the RNG can pick for his defense would be the lowest number for his defense with in this case is 32. That means you attack with 63 and they defend with 32, 63-32=31 damage. So the highest damage I can normally do would be 31.
Question 2: What would be the lowest damage I can do to the same guy?
Answer 2: The RNG can choose your lowest damage possible which is 59. It can also give your opponent his highest defense which would be 39. 59-39=20 So the least damage you can do against the same guy is 20.
Question 3: What are the odds of getting any number between the lowest damage or 20 and the highest damage of 31?
Answer 3: Well if you start to do the math starting with the lowest damage possible minus the the lowest defense then add one to defense till you get to the highest defense you get a range between 20-27. If you do the same for 60 damage you get 21-28. Do this for every level up to 63 damage and you end up with ranges that overlap each other. Every time a number comes up in a range you count it once so that you get the following breakdown. 27, 26, 25 and 24 come up 5 times, 23 and 28 come up 4 times, 22 and 29 come up 3 times, 21 and 30 come up 2 times and 20 and 31 only come out once each. If you figure out the odds based on how frequently the number from the rage comes up you get the following %.
24, 25, 26, 27 = 12.5% of the time
23, 28 = 10% of the time
22, 29 = 7.5% of the time
21, 30 = 5% of the time
20, 31 = 2.5% of the time
This means that 50% of the time the damage will fall between 24-27
This means that 70% of the time the damage will fall between 23-28
This also means you have a 2.5% chance of getting either the highest or lowest number
You can use these odds for many ranges to estimate the damage, just find the middle of the range and plus or minus 2. That's a fair range for possible damage and then figure you have about a 2/3 chance of landing within that range.
EX: 20-31 damage range divided in half is 25 plus or minus 2 is 23-27 which happens about 66% or 2/3 of the time.
Remember, the random number generator is responsible for the ultimate numbers used so don't blame your opponent, don't blame support or luck or some random DEV for the RNG. Sometimes you will do better and other times worse. Optimally, your RNG will do the best and your opponent's RNG will do it's worst but the odds of that are slim, actually 2.5% or less.
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