Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s effect on Luck in ED (Full Version)

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endtime -> Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s effect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 17:28:15)

At this point I've played enough ED to notice the differing animations between a connecting and blocked strike even before the character has started running towards the opponent and the block appears (the character takes a fraction of a second slower to start running towards the opponent on a strike that is about to be blocked).

However, have you ever noticed that if you worry about blocks, deflects, crits, etc you are more likely to be victimized? For example, a few days ago, I was on a massive juggernaut winning streak. My character was using a support build and was performing extremely well. Suddenly, I started worrying about deflect odds. None of my opponents had high enough support to go beyond the minimum 2% chance. Prior to this concern, I had not been deflected, but on the first battle after I realized the potential for deflects, I was deflected by someone with 44 support. This is just one example. A general example is the idea that when using a support build, I tend to crit more on my buddies, who are very aware of the luck factors associated with the game and considered pros, rather than the general ED public, most of which are less aware of luck factors,

So once again, to recap the question: do you think that worrying/predicting bad luck makes your odds worse as many have observed or are programmed numbers, straight up programmed numbers? After so many duels have you developed a "gut feeling" of when bad luck will happen? Is it more effective to follow the logical choice or gut feeling (e.g. you have a stronger club, but a weaker gun and a weird feeling about a block, should you rage with the club or choose the gun for safety)? Sound off below.



goldslayer1 -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 17:42:11)

quote:

So once again, to recap the question: do you think that worrying/predicting bad luck makes your odds worse as many have observed or are programmed numbers, straight up programmed numbers? Maybe, this is why when one block happens, two more follow? Sound off below.

i think blocks IMO tend to block more above the chance when ur at low %. and seem to block less at high %s.

and worrying about if 4% is going to block more doesn't make it seem like it happens often. it happens often.

if i tested right now 100 strikes against a 4% block chance.
i bet u will it will block more than 4.

while it says block is 4/100
it seems more like 20/100



Stabilis -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 17:50:55)

^ Poor Gold, most of his posts from the last few months are related to his "misfortunes" in battle. 'x'

And no I am not teasing you, more like acknowledging your state of anxiety.



Wraith -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 17:53:59)

@endtime: Correct. Normally, in battle, on the final killing blow, I was hoping my Raged Bludgeon would not be blocked, but it did.

Happened a few times.



In either case, until luck gets fixed, I'm retiring until the 29th. And that's only because of faction loyalty.



TurkishIncubus -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 17:58:04)

Maybe, when i think my oponent gonna do a luck factor 90% of the time i say "i knew it" or " i was wondering when thats gonna happen". The thing is i really feel that they gonna block or crit.

But i still cant know when deflect-stun gonna happen. My prediction is only work for blocks and crits.

also we can understand blocks from running animation like you said and most of the time when my character starts running i say "f..k"



Battle Elf -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 18:17:02)

Maybe you're just noticing more when you are really focused on winning.
When block happens I go "Pffft" and then I get more worried about more blocks happening, I use guns and specials. I think that what happens, makes me think it is likely going to repeat itself.

Just my opinion
Battle Elf



nico0las -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 18:36:16)

I have begun to notice this as well. For example, I noticed that during a block your character's
movements are far more fluid that when you get a successful strike.
However, just as battle elf said above, I don't think about it very much. I just make an effort to not strike.



Goony -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 18:52:49)

quote:

the character takes a fraction of a second slower to start running towards the opponent on a strike that is about to be blocked


Same happens on Maul, when it is the stun effect the last part of the strike takes a moment longer.

It's straight up programmed numbers, I used to have issues with the rate of critical hits when the def/res was low or attack strength was very high. I made several observations and had a classic mage video with multiple critical hits. For some reason about 4-5 months ago this stopped, maybe there was a conflict somewhere that Titan found. We'll never know! Om nom nom... Keep making observations, but answers to these questions will be... umm... idk... * meditates*



Master Volcon -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 18:58:07)

Before I found out about all the percentages with blocks and rage and crits and stuff I would often times have like 20-24 def. (Granted it was like a year and half ago) Yet I never seemed to get blocked. Once I learned about it I started getting blocked like crazy. Even now I can have over 28 Def. and still get blocked 2 or 3 times in battle when they might have 30 dexterity lower than me. It annoys me and I wish I could forget about the percents because it makes battling simpler. I freak out to much knowing I am going to be blocked...



Aere -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 20:38:37)

Haha, I know EXACTLY the sensation you're talking about. I think it's more along the lines of, after seeing so many battles, we unconsciously recognize the "patterns" or fraction-of-a-second differences in the actions. I wouldn't be able to tell you what numbers correlate with specific events, but that gut feeling has served me well enough, so I see no reason to ignore it.



XxKirachanXx -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/23/2012 21:22:09)

It seems luck enjoys mocking me...

When I really need a block or deflect, even when I have a stat advantage, as a bounty hunter, I find myself with nearly twice the support of most cap level players (I'm lv 32) But yet, not only do I not crit or deflect, I end up on the receiving end of those...
But then when I give up on hoping for those, and I don't need it, I can win easily without. I end up blocking three, and once four times in a row... I actually got reported for that, accused of hacking...



King FrostLich -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/24/2012 7:08:45)

I had this feeling even when I was non varium at that time. That's why I often tend to use unblockables to at least do some damage rather than none at all.



Shadronica -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/24/2012 9:19:42)

Ahh yes! I have observed that slight difference in animation for a long time now when I am about to get blocked.

Have you ever noticed too that the blocks, crits and deflects just start happening all at once? You have a good build and its working nicely ... then ... you log in the next day and its like your build has been flushed down the toilet. You are a magnet for crits, blocks and deflects.

It won't leave you either until you change your build which bites because already had a nice winning build. That has happened on far too many occasions for my liking.

Yeah that has been happening since around the end of beta that I can recall. I guess it was the introduction of enhancing zookas and armors.



od -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/24/2012 10:11:54)

This happens to me a lot.
I was facing another str bloodmage, and we had already fought 3 times
I could have won the first fight, but he deflected my gun. The next 2 fights I went 2nd, and due to my
45 less stat boosts I lost. The 4th fight, I went 1st, got him to 25 hp, told him on chat to not deflect my gun.

He was a bad listener XD



endtime -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/24/2012 13:15:52)

The significance of this fear of bad luck is that one might choose to use a weaker attack that is unblockable or avoid atom smashing when it is (without a block) the tactically best move. I wonder if in the long run, whether choosing "safe" moves are better/worse than choosing the most logical move.

@Shadronica
I agree with the new builds phenomenon. The first 50 or so battles with a new build are relatively lucky/not unlucky. For example, for a while, my strength build was working really well and rarely got blocked. But eventually the blocks started kept occurring so frequently that I had to switch into a support build. Support builds aren't necessarily the strongest, but I've found that it is the build where luck is least likely to aggravate me.




IsaiahtheMage -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/24/2012 13:49:42)

I think it is because we are so use to seeing luck factors happen so often that we subconsciously can tell when they happen because a slight change that happens when the characters attack and when luck factors come into play. Such as an extra second or something of that sort before something happens. But I believe it is just programmend numbers. But I do get the same feeling. Like when I'm fighting someone and I keep hitting them with my primary on the very last hit that would kill them they block. And then I say "OMFG! I knew he would block!" and then they rage crit me with their aux and do 50 damage. When they usually hit 10s-20s. And say "GG Noob!". That ticks me off so bad.



goldslayer1 -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/24/2012 17:31:53)

quote:

Have you ever noticed too that the blocks, crits and deflects just start happening all at once? You have a good build and its working nicely ... then ... you log in the next day and its like your build has been flushed down the toilet. You are a magnet for crits, blocks and deflects.

yeah this has happened to me with basically every build.
i make a good build, it works really good. then the next day its basically, well bad.
it just becomes super unlucky against crit, blocks, and deflect.

could it be a bug?



nico0las -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/24/2012 18:14:07)

I'm convinced this game is turning into SkyNet. It's learning and adapting to our builds and "flushing them down the toilet." There's no other way to say it.

I think we've all been playing so often, when we see even the slightest change in the animations we instantly register them as not only unusual but actually
meaning something.




Agiluz -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/24/2012 20:47:49)

I always use a blockable skill everytime when it is on its 12th second of my turn until I press it, this way I get like 75% to "Connect" to my opponents. It works for myself most of the time, and why do you think I always stop at the 12th seceond? because it is my lucky number.[8D]



Joe10112 -> RE: Extrasensory Perception (ESP)'s affect on Luck in ED (1/25/2012 2:35:56)

Scenario:

Me: 33 Health (plenty of mana)
Him: 2 Health (no mana)

[His turn]
Me: GG next turn (He can't kill me, I have too much health!)
His attack: Critical 34 damage.

Me: ...


Or when you say "GG" and then you get blocked. -.-

You just get a peculiarity of "I'm going to get blocked/deflected/critted/raged on..." sometimes and then it happens and then you :O O.O



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