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Nightmare Dage The Evil

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12/23/2019 12:09:54   

The boss Nightmare Dage The Evil is supposed to drop his armor, but Whitebeard has beaten him 11 times and myself 4 times, none of us have gotten the armor so i'm wondering if he even still drops it at all???
Post #: 1
12/23/2019 12:33:44   
.Lord Ginger.

15% drop rate.

Chance of you not getting armor is (85/100)^4

Chance of him not getting armor is (85/100)^11

Obviously his is less likely than yours, but still decently plausible
AQW Epic  Post #: 2
12/23/2019 13:27:15   

The most I've seen someone do it is 16 times. It is what it is. But yeah, it wouldn't hurt for the testers to check it if you're concerned about this because I haven't heard of anyone getting it yet after he was brought back the second time.

< Message edited by NDB -- 12/23/2019 13:35:13 >
Epic  Post #: 3
12/23/2019 15:08:42   

i have beaten him again (total of 5 times now), still no armor...
Post #: 4
12/23/2019 19:49:07   

Beaten him once more and no drop (total of 6 times), just to add on to it, all the people who i have beaten him with have NOT gotten the drop. I'm highly convinced that the drop isn't working because as NDB said i also haven't seen anyone get the armor after he was brought back. (it should be 100% drop though honestly)
Post #: 5
12/24/2019 11:16:14   

It will be checked if there is a bug or not.
AQW Epic  Post #: 6
12/24/2019 12:58:23   

Update: I have beaten him for my 7th try and have gotten the armor (my teammate did not) however as i said earlier whitebeard has beaten NM Dage 11 times (and still trying) so i think it might be the old drop % of 2 instead of 15.
Post #: 7
12/24/2019 19:31:47   
.Lord Ginger.

1/7 is roughly 15% for you. You are ridiculous.

Not getting it at 16 is 1/16 and IF you'd get it on the 17th, it's 1/17, which is 5.8%.

Saying it's 2% is so hilariously wrong since you got it on the 7th. You want to claim that it's 2% when you don't even beat the boss 50 times without a drop.

Come on my guy.

Look up the law of averages while you're at it.

< Message edited by .Lord Ginger. -- 12/24/2019 19:33:42 >
AQW Epic  Post #: 8
12/24/2019 20:28:16   

It's chance, whatever the % is you can get it on your first try or your 50th try, i'm just saying that after 11 tries and not having gotten the armor is ridiculous considering the hours it takes
Post #: 9
12/28/2019 16:35:58   

Not gonna lie, at first I was skeptical that the drop rate was actually bugged since Raxzer got it after 7 tries, but now I'm starting to get a bit suspicious myself. As of today, WhiteBeard has beaten him 16 times and still hasn't gotten the drop. I myself have beaten him 10* times across two accounts this week and didn't get the drop on either one. Besides Raxzer, it doesn't seem like many people have gotten the armor since he returned despite seeing screenshots of people beating him all the time on Twitter.

That being said, I think it would be worth checking to make sure the drop rate is actually 15% and not bugged at 2% or something else because people don't want to be wasting ungodly amounts of time on this one drop if it turns out it was bugged this whole time. I'm sure Nightwraith could also check to see exactly how many people have beaten Nightmare Dage since he returned and also how many have gotten the drop since then.

Also, while you're at it, could we get a confirmation on what the drop rate is for Nightmare Charfade weapons are? I know that it is supposed to be 2%, but I don't know what this 2% is referring to. Is it 2% to get a drop per win (effectively 0.67% per item) or 2% per item (effectively 6% total to get any of the three per win)? I'm curious because in the past, with Bio Hazard Husk, the drop chance was 1% but there were E and P versions, so effectively the chance of each was 0.5%. And also, I've beaten her a little over 100 times now and only received two drops which would suggest it's 0.67% per item, which is honestly a bit ridiculous if this was intended.

Edit: 18 times as of 1/1/2020

< Message edited by NDB -- 1/1/2020 20:47:28 >
Epic  Post #: 10
12/29/2019 2:50:38   

ArchKnight EpicDuel

We did confirm it at 15% but I'll give it a another double check in-case something has changed that.

As for your question Machaon I believe it's 2% per item so a 6% per kill. Again I'll double check this however 100 wins with 2 items does sound within the rate.
AQ Epic  Post #: 11
12/29/2019 3:21:49   

Two drops in a hundred kills is... hardly in within range. Z test tells me there's only an 8.5% chance of that occurring if the rate is truly 6%. Not impossible, yeah, but definitely enough to raise suspicions.

From what I have observed, RNG die rolls in the game are usually coded sequentially. Things like Arcade, gift mail rewards, what NPC shows up in Jugg, Bio Hazard Husk, etc. definitely seem to be coded such that one random variable gets decided before the next. In Arcade, for example, the game first decides whether you got a Bronze, Silver, or Gold, and then second which one, specifically, you got. In that way, an Arcade that has four possible unique Gold rewards doesn't have a higher chance of giving you any Gold than one with only two possible rewards. Similarly, in Jugg, the game first decides what level the NPC is (29, 30, 31, 32 for the top) and then second which NPC, specifically, it will be. The ratios in which the NPCs appear clearly indicate this to be true. That's why I was inclined to believe that the Charfade drops were also coded this way, where it first decides if you got a drop at all (2% rate) and then decides which one of the drops you got.

But since you've given me an answer, I guess I can't really argue with that unless your double checking says otherwise. Thank you!

< Message edited by NDB -- 12/29/2019 3:23:36 >
Epic  Post #: 12
12/31/2019 3:50:26   

Well, I've done it 126 times across my accounts and still only two drops. That's an observed proportion of 1.587%. Z test tells me there's only a 3.7% chance of this occurring if the true value is actually 6%. That is pretty darn low. At some point we have to draw the line between what's realistic and what's likely not.

I'm not sure how you are checking that it is supposed to be 2% for each, but if there's any uncertainty at all as to what the 2% is referring to, I urge you to get the actual code checked, if possible, if you haven't already. That's the only way I can feel certain that there isn't some kind of misinterpretation of the drop % on your end.

< Message edited by NDB -- 12/31/2019 3:51:49 >
Epic  Post #: 13
12/31/2019 12:16:45   


That's why I was inclined to believe that the Charfade drops were also coded this way, where it first decides if you got a drop at all (2% rate) and then decides which one of the drops you got.

I imagine this might be how the drop chance is calculated by the game
Epic  Post #: 14
1/6/2020 18:10:45   

I've now done it 250 times with seven drops. The chance of this occurring is 3.31% assuming the drop rate is supposed to be 6%.

I know this is still possible and I don't like to keep bringing this topic up. Even with this data, I can't prove it's not 6% and I'm not insisting that it's not. But I still can't shake off the feeling that something stinks and that there's a chance that it's not.

Out of the seven drops, four were the aux and three were the gun. The chance of not getting the claws seven times in a row is 5.85%. I know four other people who have gotten one or more drops and none of them got the claws either. This is weird.

I know there must be some way to check if anybody in the game has the claws. If nobody has them, that suggests something. Even if it's an annoying thing to do, I'd be grateful if I don't get ignored here.

Meanwhile, I sincerely wish that there be missions made for these types of drops, at least in the future. I don't care if the drop rate is not bugged and I've been barking up the wrong tree this entire time. If there were missions for one drop per 50 kills, I'd gladly take that over a 6% drop even though, theoretically, you should be able to get three drops in far fewer than 150 kills if it is 6%. Because RNG sucks. I'd be close to getting all three drops if that were the case. I have 124 kills on my main account and all he's gotten so far is the aux twice.

< Message edited by NDB -- 1/7/2020 18:52:39 >
Epic  Post #: 15
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