Luck Discussion (Full Version)

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Gabriel Dude -> Luck Discussion (3/17/2011 15:14:59)

I have been watching that what we call 创Luck创 is getting out of place. I would just for this game to be more balanced in the term of Blocks,Crits,Deflections and even sometimes starting the battle. Put your oppinion

quote:

Title fixed, and threads merged to prevent multiple similar topics since there are already some similar topics about Luck here:
- 创Luck创 is gettin out of place (Original Thread)
- Luck, as it relates to the length of battles
- To Reduce Luck's Anoyence
- Fixing luck


You can discuss here anything about Luck:
  • Chance events (stun, crit, block, deflect) and their effect on battles
  • Luck is getting out of place
  • Luck, as it relates to the length of battles
  • Reducing the effect of luck / Fixing link
  • etc

    ~AVA




    • Avantir -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 18:03:39)

    I say that luck is fine, just as long as this game doesn't get renamed to "Rock, Paper, Scissors".



    Vick Vega -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 19:13:50)

    10000000 x agree!



    Cinderella -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 19:37:50)

    It's not really "luck"- it's all math, it's not a random chance. And, when you look at the rate of crits, blocks, and deflections across the entire game, it's clear that the system isn't broken.



    Angels Holocaust -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 19:45:13)

    I agree with you my friend, the system has a way of screwing over a player. A person with lower support should never be able to crit a player with more, that should be the bottom line. Not the other way around. When I used to play people with no support or dex would not only be able to crit me, but also block me at the same time. If I were you I would stick to npcs, this game is a game where anyone can beat anybody just take a look at all time. A person there should be undefeatable but thats not the case. A random crit or block can send the average pro straight to hell.



    Shadronica -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 20:00:56)

    Just posted the same sentiments in another thread. http://forums2.battleon.com/f/tm.asp?m=18621199&mpage=12?

    Well ... all of us that have been here since December '09 (actually very few of us left) know full well that BH's rule December till April then Mages become OP'd again then its Mercs turn in August.

    Just the way the game keeps going so that more money is obtained from everyone jumping class.

    Nothing has changed except the dev's keep devising more ways for skills/stats to be used or abused to make certain classes OP'd.

    SA is most definitely the most deadly of all the new skills devised, therefore giving BH's an advantage. I realise that not all BH's use it ... before anyone gets antsy and shouts "I DON'T".

    I manage to use assimilate sometimes to my advantage but it is minor in comparison to BH's ability to block and deflect consistently.

    I still think that the RNG is in big need of repair to bring more order and balance to this game.

    Currently I have a reasonable amount of dex (75) yet still manage to be blocked by someone with 36 dex AND that person with 36 dex is still able to strike me 100%.

    There is no rhyme or reason for the luck factor.

    Once upon a time I could predict 98% of the time whether I would be blocked or critted but the deflects are relatively new in comparison in this game and are far more prevalent now as well.

    Even sometimes when I have used Malf and then aux I have noticed that my aux has done comparitively little damage compared to normal damage without it being deflected either. In other words I have malfunctioned someone for 37 on their tech then when I have used my aux it has only done normal damage ... no deflects.

    Why have the dev's given lower levels more chance to crit, stun, block or deflect? (not to mention first go)

    I can put up with the endless cycle of class OPness but I totally hate that the RNG is not running true.

    If the RNG was right ... then I would be able to make a build and use the strategy confidently to overcome the OP classes just as I did back when Gamal and Dark Avenger were the BH kings of ED.

    The way I see it with the strength abusing mercs too is that even when I used a heap of dex (96) they were still more than capable of striking me at least 99%. Ridiculous!

    Fix the RNG in the game first and foremost then balance the classes/stats/skills. If that is what the dev's truly wish to do.



    One Winged Angel1357 -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 20:01:32)

    this is the most realible thng i can post about luck

    quote:

    Big Tuna:
    Call it what you want to call it. The fact is that there is no "luck" written in the code of the game. Nowhere is there a line in Titan's scripting that reads "(luck.happen) #bad_luck"


    The system just picks random players to hate on some times and other times the system chooses to let you win its how this system works


    Also luck in right where it belongs its in no way out of place its with those we call noobs



    Cinderella -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 21:06:14)

    Angels, nobody should be unbeatable- that's why there's an element of chance. The game would get real boring real quick if outcomes were guaranteed.

    The problem with this kind of discussion is that humans are wired to see patterns, and essentially believe in things like "luck". The system doesn't choose to screw some people over and let others win. Say you have a fair coin- you know that the chance of each flip landing heads is 50%, but sometimes you start flipping and it lands heads 10 times in a row, which is not significant, statistically speaking. When you start flipping that coin 1000, 5000, etc. times, it looks a lot more like 50% heads/50% tails. The same deal with crits/blocks. Say that you have a 25% chance to block and your opponent has a 10% chance to block- you "should" block 1 out of each four strikes he makes against you, and he should block 1 out of every ten of your strikes. It's not out of the realm of statistical probability for him to block you five times in a row, because if you would fight him 1000 times, it would look a lot more like the stated probability.



    Shadronica -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 21:52:33)

    True Cindy I hear what you are saying however ... I put 90 in Dex and did well over 400, closer to 500 battles in a period of a few days. Out of all those battles I blocked only 4 players. How many more battles would I have to do to get a true representation?

    In all of those battles against players of varying Dex from as low as 33 how many times did I get blocked?

    I got blocked at least once every 2 battles. Now for all the smarties that say "use unblockables" I strike to perform malfunction at least once per battle and also try to use assimilate.

    Now either I had a most shocking run of luck or the block system needs overhauling.

    I forgot to mention that out of the 4 players whom I blocked in all of those battles with my ridiculous dex ... I blocked 2 of them multiple times which caused them to report me.



    Competition -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 21:55:23)

    I just fought another merc (I'm a merc as well) and he blocked 4 out of 5 of my robot hits.
    And he deflected me. We had the same DEX and SUPP, and he still managed to do it.



    ED Prince of Shadows -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 22:00:30)

    @Angels
    NPCing isn't satisfying enough for your ratio? No one deserve to win well the other loses- everytime.

    @Shad
    I'm with you on this one, even with 84 dex & SA I am unable to even BLOCK. The RNG may have possibly gone out of control (like people hitting higher/lower then possibly *hint,hint*) with recent crits especially that either I am angry about or my opponent. I myself am unhappy- not for losing- but because I am TOO lucky, opponents frequently call be a cheater, hacker, etc. when I am confident I could have won without the "help". As for BHs, yes we are OP'd in our own rights, I use SA to couter other BHs and especially >>STR MERCS<< who are over-looked everyday by shear OPdness that no one can deny! This isn't focused towards Wiseman in anyway, but his STR build includes much higher dex then most but still A LOT of STR, offering that 'two-hit wonder' which is near impossible to overcome.

    @Cinderella
    I believe the problem is that it's hyper-active, offering too much chance. I feel it has too great a factor in each and every battle (even more with Azrael Bane). But I do see where you're coming from :P



    That's all I have to say for now [8|]
    -PoS



    PhoenixGladiator -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/27/2011 23:59:31)

    I agree with you Prince. There is simply too much chance and variability among what can happen in any given battle. There is no reason anybody should get critted, deflected, and blocked 3,4, or even 5+ times in one game.

    As far as this goes:
    quote:

    When you start flipping that coin 1000, 5000, etc. times, it looks a lot more like 50% heads/50% tails. The same deal with crits/blocks. Say that you have a 25% chance to block and your opponent has a 10% chance to block- you "should" block 1 out of each four strikes he makes against you, and he should block 1 out of every ten of your strikes. It's not out of the realm of statistical probability for him to block you five times in a row, because if you would fight him 1000 times, it would look a lot more like the stated probability.


    First, the probability of someone blocking 5 times in a row with a 25% chance to block is not even 0.1%, which statistically speaking is highly improbable. Technically that is "out of the realm of statistical probability." Second, those first 5 blocks in a row would in now way influence the outcome of the next 1000 times. You are referencing a well known illogical fallacy known as the Gambler's fallacy. While the proportion may get closer and closer to 0 (according to the Law of Large Numbers), the difference between the two does not systematically decrease to 0.

    I guess I'm trying to point out that with SA and SS on the opponent, it almost feels like a 100% chance to block. I performed an experiment today and was blocked 42/53 times while smoked against an opponent with 6 SA or higher. That should never happen... (I'm not sure this can be extended to other aspects of RNG in the game as well)



    Elf Priest JZaanu -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 0:27:10)

    Many of these issues are due to enhancements and our current level cap. Now add focus and agility, and the formula is an unknown factor that is being more consistent in gameplay.

    The weapon enhancements still boggle me. I think if we went back into time, and when the feature was suggested, this is not what people thought it would be like.

    We have three tiers in the game now

    Free players, Paying players, Double dipping paying players

    As long as, we are at this level cap, this will become more and more of an issue with every weapon release.



    Shadronica -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 0:44:59)

    Aha yes Jzaanu you are right. However, before we get our current "currency paid" weapons outdated because we are leveling up again, we need the varium sell back system in place otherwise much of the long term players will simply vanish because of high varium farming once again as we will have to buy lvl 34 - 50 weapons.



    PhoenixGladiator -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 0:48:02)

    You really think the level cap is going to be raised to 50? I'm thinking it's going to be raised to 35 or 36 next.



    PD -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 1:43:34)

    Just for the sake of reference, these are how the luck factors are calculated: How Things are Calculated (Taken from the OLD Epicduel Forums)

    Everyone is free to draw their own conclusions. Personally, I believe Stat Inflation and enhancements caused these absurd luck factors to wind out of control. The formulas are fine - The Stat inflation and enhancements aren't, and should be dealt with.



    PhoenixGladiator -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 2:01:40)

    ^ You linked to a non-existent topic...



    voidance -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 3:15:49)

    I'm not gonna lie i have called people lucky noobs, but its not luck its just unlikely that what they did could have happened which annoys people then they say stuff like "lucky noob"[:@].



    TurkishIncubus -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 4:07:41)

    Luck Factor is fine but i only cant understand How 28 support merc can start the match , i got 94 support :S .



    PhoenixGladiator -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 4:10:11)

    Everything needs to be capped off at a certain percent. I don't know how many more matches I can go if I keep getting blocked 6+ times.



    voidance -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 4:17:58)

    @TurkishIncubus
    OMG i know what you mean, 30 support bounty hunters and 26 support merc's go first 90% of the time.



    Vick Vega -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 15:18:43)

    quote:

    Everything needs to be capped off at a certain percent. I don't know how many more matches I can go if I keep getting blocked 6+ times.


    AGREE!!!

    Luck is a bad term for this it is. The odds for people with stats that in no way reflect the ability to bock, crit, or deflect are far too wide! The current battles are like an epic ninja being attacked a by farmer and the ninja missing the farmer six times in a row fifty times per day. Now add the fact that the ninja just spent $100 on farmer killing gear and its still happening. CRAZY! Turn it off.



    ED Prince of Shadows -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 16:24:02)

    @PD
    Use tiny URL for that. Though, those calculations are long changed since that originally was posted. (This is the post)

    @Vick Vega
    Nice analogy [;)]

    @TurkishIncubus
    Totally agree, but then again, some need luck (Low levels). We all know it's possible to defeat them without going first (be a bounty, see what kills you). It does seem they are lucky but that probably relates to the factor Cinderella was saying; we remember good/bad luck more then just a normal fight.



    Remember- when you get bad luck someone else gets good luck, be happy that there is always a positive luck factor for either you or your enemy every time there is a crit/block/deflect!




    Cinderella -> RE: 创Luck创 is gettin out of place. (2/28/2011 17:26:36)

    @Shadronica it's hard to get a truly representative sample- some of your opponents may have had much lower dexterity and some may have had as much dexterity as you or more.

    @Phoenix- I'm sorry if you think I was saying that- in no way was I saying that the previous turn would influence the next one. I was simply saying that it's much more likely than not for things to look a little more even when your n value is higher (I DID take statistics, lol).



    Ashari -> Luck Discussion (2/28/2011 17:37:59)

    @Cinderella: It actually wouldn't be too difficult to work out a weighted sample after a few 100 battles. I think I'll start recording my battle results if people still think the RNG is broken.

    The RNG isn't broken, and by the end of the week I should be able to prove that. What is broken (balance-wise) is the block rate formula. 1% Block rate per 2 Dexterity is far too much and that's the reason why it's so easy for BHs to hit the block cap once you are Smoke screened.



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