RE: =AQ= Frostval 2021 Begins


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1/24/2022 0:58:20

PD
Member

^^
Thanks for the reminder. It's been so long that I can only assume a few people have actually forgotten that the contest is still running at this point.

I pushed up a small change because I realized that after doing some testing, some items weren't being counted. I pushed up a hotfix to deal with that. Now some players will have a better reflected totals (Although still imperfect). I have gotten some feedback that the app doesn't always work, which in this case, a workaround can be used: If the app doesn't load initially, just come back around 2-3 minutes as the API usually falls asleep due to inactivity. I'll have to explore some other platforms as I'm unhappy with heroku and netlify doesn't really work with api endpoints that well (especially heroku) but didn't have the time to because I'd more or less made this thing in such a short time.

After the contest is over, I'll probably turn it off for the time being (maybe keep it around for a week or two just to see the difference between the real results and "my" results) and depending on if next year's contest is even ranked I might just work on doing something else and permanently shut it down if there's major changes. Anyways as for some updates:

Top:
50: 15,948,941,484 Gold (Currently 12,410,603,700 Gold, +28.5%)
100: 7,365,536,621 Gold (Currently 4,455,200,000 Gold, +65.3%)
150: 4,471,148,438 Gold (Currently 2,830,000,200 Gold, +57.9%)

Again, not everyone's going to donate everything they have. And this number can go up/down depending on how hard people farm coming to the home stretch. My personal prediction on where everything's going to land up? I actually think it'll end up pretty close to these numbers, +/- some deviation.

< Message edited by PD -- 1/24/2022 1:03:17 >

Post #: 101

1/31/2022 0:00:00

Primate Murder
Member

24 hours remaining until the end of the contest!

Post #: 102

1/31/2022 0:14:50

PD
Member

Just for archiving statistics:

Cutoffs at this moment for the gold contest: (With app prediction)

Top:
50: 17,410,484,305 Gold, (Currently 14,640,000,000 Gold, +18.9%)
100: 8,225,653,304 Gold (Currently 5,257,410,300 Gold, +56.4%)
150: 4,716,515,506 Gold (Currently 3,296,001,200 Gold, +43.0%)

Total: 4,171,348,365,354 Gold (Currently 2,774,492,714,900 Gold, +50.3%)

There's definitely been an increased convergence towards the predicted cutoffs, but still there remains much error. Perhaps at the end of the day we'll see how close the convergence is. I don't think we'll actually hit 4 trillion (although 3 trillion is definitely within the cards) because a combination of the top rankers deciding not to donate everything they have due a sense of security, some people giving up, and some people possibly forgetting that there's a contest going on that's ending today. Certainly this will be an interesting 24 hours.

Also, it seems I won't be able to reach 350b this time due to my own error unless I get lucky with the donation receipts. During this contest due to human error, I probably lost around 4 billion (double selling storage chests, accidentally selling a chest immediately after buying it instead of storing it like I intended to, accidentally saving battles when over 1.2b gold, etc). Either way this will probably be the highest anyone will ever donate in terms of gold.

EDIT: Just received 725 tokens across my accounts. Thanks generous people!

A short commentary I want to make - It definitely seems that this year's contests are more competitive than they are in the past, although it's difficult to point out a single contributing factor, although I think it's plausible due to the combination of the below:

1. Facilitated methods of storing gold (Chests)
2. The increased cuttoffs for winning prizes (50 instead of the usual 25)
3. Increased efficiency of farming methods
4. Increased competition window

That being said with all the above considered, the predictions that people said that increasing the rank cutoffs would make it less competitive (and people donate less) seemed to be incorrect - if anything because the cutoffs have increased, more people have decided to participate because they believe the prizes are within their reach. Although people may resent the fact that the actual cost of winning has increased, that this is pretty much the support we need to know that increasing the rank cutoffs is a win-win for everyone: More people will donate overall and more people will win. Though in an ideal world, we still wouldn't have ranked contests and instead would have a collective-prize contest (like Nilak).

The next contests - the summer contests already are slated to be a top 25 cutoff instead of a top 15. Knowing what we know now, perhaps there should be discussion of increasing even this mark. Perhaps not to top 50, but maybe something like top 30 or even top 35 (while continuing for the very top, custom versions of the prizes)?

< Message edited by PD -- 1/31/2022 1:12:39 >

Post #: 103

1/31/2022 17:03:30

RobynJoanne
Member

@PD
So I've been using your list as a resource pretty extensively (Thank you so much for your hard work!), and I've noticed that people like Gavers (H on the Gold Donation Contest list) do not appear on your list. Because Gavers had not previously participated (or at least not enough to have placed on last year's Gold Donation Contest list) and only entered this year's list after you created your website, their characters do not appear on your list. Would you care to fetch char ids from the current Gold Donation Contest list to be as accurate as possible before the end of the contest? Thanks! While the nature of the Gold Donation Contest and its delays mean it's unlikely crazy sniping will occur last minute, I am sure people would definitely want to have as good an approximation as possible to know if they may require some last-minute gold from GGBs or farming.

Post #: 104

1/31/2022 19:47:26

PD
Member

Odd, and apologies as I've been really busy for most of the day. I found that ID previously on a set of excluded Id's I was manually not adding to the results (Because of various reasons. Staff accounts, other irregularities, etc) and it seemed my app flagged that one automatically. It has been removed and should now be tracked (It is currently ranked 13th). I have also lowered the update timer to 900 seconds (15 minutes) from 3600 (1 hour) as faster updates are necessary for the ending of the contest. Redeployed the app so it should be effective immediately.

Also, with about 4 hours to go...

Top:
50: 18,920,276,404 Gold, (Currently 16,681,011,000 Gold, +13.4%)
100: 8,699,308,686 Gold, (Currently 6,211,100,300 Gold, +40.0%)
150: 4,997,791,923 Gold, (Currently 3,507,001,000 Gold, +42.5%)

Total: 4,318,284,684,313 Gold (Currently 2,919,289,212,200 Gold, +47.9%)

A little more convergence (though not a significant amount), and we're approaching 3 trillion total. The actual numbers might be a little lower, at least because there's 3 (+1 on the very outside) players in the top 50 who haven't donated and don't appear to be participating (Eva Ernst, ClumsyApply, Lord Taelond, Master Guardian) and many on the top ranks who won't donate the maximum amounts they can. I'm actually kind of curious to see how deep into 3 trillion we'll get. Closer to 3 trillion, or 4 trillion?

BTW, for you people holding back gold to each the top 50 - The minimum transaction timer is around ~30 seconds, and per every hour, that means you can only perform 120 transactions per hour, at max being 12 billion gold. If you started at 10pm EST, you will only be able to donate at max 24 billion gold.

Final Hour Update:

Top:
50: 19,468,590,982 Gold, (Currently 17,401,011,000 Gold, +11.1%)
100: 8,797,370,243 Gold, (Currently 6,420,560,400 Gold, +37.0%)
150: 5,002,797,295 Gold, (Currently 3,857,001,000 Gold, +29.5%)

Total: 4,360,568,902,455 Gold (Currently 2,984,234,255,800 Gold, +46.1%)

< Message edited by PD -- 1/31/2022 23:10:53 >

Post #: 105

1/31/2022 23:35:58

Primate Murder
Member

3 trillion reached!

Post #: 106

2/1/2022 0:02:16

Sapphire
Member

It should be over. Hopefully...

Post #: 107

2/1/2022 0:03:03

PD
Member

@Primate Murder: Thanks for posting, I get to bump this now :P

The contests are finally over! I have some interesting analysis to do for sure, and will momentarily update the post as the last increment of data comes in.

Final numbers: (Raw numbers, includes people outside the top 200)

Top:
50: 19,668,590,982 Gold, (Currently 18,435,050,000 Gold, +6.7%)
100: 9,076,284,602 Gold, (Currently 6,577,700,000 Gold, +38.0%)
150: 5,143,165,178 Gold, (Currently 3,926,501,000 Gold, +30.9%)

Total: 4,399,706,134,889 Gold (Currently 3,039,816,782,600 Gold, +46.1%)

So I missed pretty badly because it turns out there were quite a few people who could have been on the top ranks, but chose not to participate for reasons unknown. Although it's still surprising to me at least that I managed to predict the top 50 cutoff within 10%. However if we chose to exclude the people who were outside the top 200, it looks more like this...

Top:
50: 18,832,321,493 Gold, (Currently 18,435,050,000 Gold, +2.15%)
100: 7,452,011,560 Gold, (Currently 6,577,700,000 Gold, +13.3%)
150: 4,465,420,126 Gold, (Currently 3,926,501,000 Gold, +13.7%)

Total: 3,703,814,178,982 Gold (Currently 3,039,816,782,600 Gold, +21.8%)

Still not perfect, but MUCH closer to within predicted range. Regardless this predictive model did much better than I expected it to all things considered how simplistic the analysis was. In reality though I failed to account how people were actually trending much more minimalistically than maximimally. There are two things to understand. First let's for now call this first thing the Propensity Ratio, or:

Currently Donated Amount / Possible Donated Amount

Where a ratio of 1 means perfectly spending all your possible gold, and 0 meaning you spent nothing. Running this amongst the Top 50 finishers, we get something like this:

Average Propensity Ratio: ~.83 (or 83%)
Median Propensity Ratio: ~.90 (or 90%)

On the surface, it sounds like most people gave it their all, but let's use the Safety Ratio as another thing:

Currently Donated Amount / Minimum Cutoff

The lower the ratio, the less "Safe" you decided to play. That said:

Average Safety Ratio: 1.60 (60%)
Median Safety Ratio: 1.19 (19%)

Averages skewed by the top, but the Median tells a very different story - That most people actually donated "just enough" to make their cutoffs. And you can see this empirically in the behaviors of the top 50 where the separation between the 50 and 25 was a mere 3 billion gold.

So with all that being said, this was quite an interesting contest - at least for me because I learned quite a lot (and I'm sure others have learned quite a lot as well). Going forward I have some ideas about how to deal with all of this variable behavior - perhaps running this as a Monte Carlo Simulation and accounting for a wide vareity of behaviors that people exhibit (IE, if people donate maximally, minimally, and a aggregate with a probability distribution of all simulated outcomes). Though this is too much math for me today, maybe next time this will all be a real possibility.

All said, I managed to hit over 350 Billion at the end thanks to getting lucky with the receipts as well as playing with no effort spared. After I get all my remaining receipts I am probably going to take a break for a good while as I have exerted myself far beyond what is reasonable.

EDIT: Shutting down the app for now. May bring it back in the future but for now it has served its purpose.

< Message edited by PD -- 2/1/2022 1:35:11 >

Post #: 108

2/1/2022 11:17:53

Sapphire
Member

I found that there was much more movement on the token side as my character dropped around 20 spots and almost dropped out of one bracket, and forced me to donate again to safely retain inside the bracket I had hoped to maintain. -Glares at the last minute folks-

I told myself I wouldnt donate many tokens to go for the items in the beginning but ended up donating more than I intended lol. My only hope now is that the items end up worth what I spent. If not, I won't be participating again.

For Gold, I did drop maybe 3 or 4 spots but I was much lower in rank compared to the token side, so I think there may have been much more movement above and/or below me in the end. I did receive about 500 million gold in the last 2 days and re-donated 400 of it just to try and stay fairly close to where I was before the last 48 hours began. So I know there was lots of donating.

All in all, 2 miscs and 1 shield I will get. I hope they all end up very good items. What's weird is IMO, I am glad the shields and miscs were lower brackets as I could care less about the weapons. So works for me.

If this ends up being a dud, it will shine a light on what I feel to be an issue, and that is to say, not knowing what the items really are. Showing the art does little for me as I never make equipment decisions based on that. How good it is, is what matters to me.

I think we need to have the info subs before the contest begins, and it should motivate people to play if the items are good. There is a track record for these donation items being on the better side for sure, but it being an unknown IMO can still hurt the level of participation. IDK, maybe not as much if we continue to see outstanding donation items. Just my opinion.

Excited to see how good the items are.

< Message edited by SapphireCatalyst2021 -- 2/1/2022 11:21:53 >

Post #: 109

2/1/2022 11:45:27

battlesiege15
Member

Oh boy, the last minute shuffle of the leaderboards. Ended up at 139 and 99 for gold/token.

That was a very close yet fun contest. I wish people could still donate cause now my character is very broke even after buying a whole bunch of Mystery Bags of Gold from GGB. If anyone wants to wire my character some gold in game, let me know haha

AQW

Post #: 110

2/1/2022 14:11:50

Bu Kek Siansu
Member

http://forums2.battleon.com/f/fb.asp?m=22400426

quote:

I think we need to have the info subs before the contest begins, and it should motivate people to play if the items are good. There is a track record for these donation items being on the better side for sure, but it being an unknown IMO can still hurt the level of participation. IDK, maybe not as much if we continue to see outstanding donation items. Just my opinion.

A good idea.

IIRC afterwards we still can give our ideas to improve it, right?

Post #: 111

2/1/2022 14:33:37

Uskius
Member

I also managed to get the BC shield and misc, and they focus on blocking and defense. The misc in particular seems interesting, as it can basically give your character a Blocking sort of lean(+MRM, -dmg) on top of its other defensive boosts. Could pair interestingly with several things.

Epic

Post #: 112

2/1/2022 16:51:23

dizzle
Member

Really really happy with the donation rewards! Especially the gold rewards. You guys knocked it out of the park! The prisma burn from the gold weapon is insanely strong and we know have a skill similar to panoply, but all builds can use it thanks to it costing sp. The misc is fantastic as well. Mrm boost for a slight damage reduction plus a +50 dex boost *chefs kiss*

The token shield will also come in handy against harder bosses and the fact that it revives you plus gives you a fat damage boost makes it have awesome synergy. The misc seemed to be bugged but once it gets fixed will be very nice for stacking burns with beast builds. I won’t use the token weapons that much but they very well could come in handy sometime down the road if I change my build set up.

Overall I’m hype about the rewards! Awesome job thanks for all the hard work fam ???? I’m excited for this weeks release!!

Also shouts out to PD for the hard work on the Gold donation list! ????

Edit: The ????? Are thumbs up emojis lol

AQ	Post #: 113

2/1/2022 17:39:47

GwenMay
Member

The donation set stuff looks good! Thank you for the prompt delivery as well!

I just have one comment - I was chatting with Cray about this on discord, but it seems like the donation items should have a Full Set Bonus. Last years' winter gold and token shields both had FSBs, and the weapon that the Shadow Phoenix wep is a clone of also has a FSB. My recommendation would be to increase the SP/MP healing for Shadow Phoenix wep by 5% if player has shadow phoenix wep and shield equipped, to match FSB of dark dragonlord wep + shield. My suggestion for boreal weapon is to increase its prismatic burn power if player has both wep and shield equipped (increasing mrm of the shield's dodge would also work).

Thanks again for the items! Looking forward to this weeks release.

AQW

Epic

Post #: 114

2/1/2022 17:44:11

Dreiko Shadrack
Member

I disagree that items that share mechanics with other items (even if they may be set items themselves) need to have matching associated bonuses, as such I'd much rather have a new/different FSB for the phoenix set than just making it the eclipsed dragonlord's.

AQW

Epic

Post #: 115

2/1/2022 22:17:27

Veleqwii_Fox
Member

I'm happy with the donation rewards! Thanks staff!

Post #: 116

2/3/2022 5:14:53

SIGMUND
Member

Many thanks to the people who donated 26725 tokens to my account during the Donation contest.

My new characters were able to buy their final Storage Buildings
and will soon (3 months) be ready to make a full contribution of Army Wins during future Wars ....

AQ	Post #: 117

2/3/2022 11:52:40

battlesiege15
Member

How many full estates do you have @SIGMUND?

AQW

Post #: 118

2/3/2022 12:04:16

Sapphire
Member

Recieved two miscs and 1 shield.

The Phoenix shield- Not bad. 50 charges upon death results in a massive empowerment. Nuke level. While the effect is cool, and while the emppowerment acts like a last minute nuke-save, in reality it's by in large impractical. You shouldnt be losing to non bosses, and therefore the resurrection ability comes in handy versus bosses, but since most bosses have damage caps, the enpowerment against them is pointless.
After playing with the item, it feels like the effects are anti-synergistic in most cases. I give this shield a 5 out of 10.

Phoenix Misc- Love the idea. There needs to be way way more stuff that is inflicted based on pets/guests like this. 8 out of 10. I would have preferred bleed, but thematically burn works here so I can't fault it. I hope this is a sign of things to come.

Boreal Misc- You can get as good if not better blocking w/o sacrificing damage. 4 out of 10. I'll never use this.

Items I didnt get..

Boreal shield- 9 out of 10. I am curious how other MRM boosts stack with it but very nice item

Boreal Weapons- 7 out of 10, 9 for Sol Neko users.

Phoenix Weapons-3 out of 10. Heals based on weapon hits suck. Heals based on damage = better. You would need an 8 hit armor or more to make this worth it.

Post #: 119

2/3/2022 13:09:30

battlesiege15
Member

*looks at Gogg Shapeshift* It's got 7 hits :o

AQW

Post #: 120

2/3/2022 14:40:52

RobynJoanne
Member

Thanks for the items! I think they're all brilliant. The staff has done a wonderful job this time.

Boreal Cavalier weapons: I think many people have asked for more Prismatic Burn items. I certainly wanted more, and this is a fantastic alternative to Moglin Fan.

Boreal Cavalier Defender: It's been known for a long time that people want Big Dictionary back. This is a good substitute that also happens to be usable without Int, which will be especially important once we get the stat revamp. ~~Now, if only Panoply could get updated to pay the proper costs and get an appropriately weaker effect...~~

Boreal Cavalier Emblem: This is an absolutely fantastic dodge misc, especially for dodgelashers who do not need to worry all that much about losing weapon damage.

Shadow Phoenix weapons: Fire DL weapon clones. The fact that these are 0-proc means that they're a clear substitute for the Dreamweaver weapons. Alas, that also means we don't just have a meme 100-proc Melee weapon for choices

. I know some will definitely feel a bit disappointed that we're getting clones and especially strictly inferior clones since the DL weapons have FSBs as mentioned above, but I think they're great, though I also didn't pay for them and cannot speak for those who did.

Shadow Phoenix Feathers: My favorite item of the bunch. I've been having an absolute blast with it. x7 EleEmpower at 50 charges is just really strong, and my personal build has enough damage mitigation to make it usable without precharging. I also just like it as a safety net in case I do actually die, which is always my personal opinion on the primary goal of a resurrection item. It's also inspired me to look at effects that scale off low HP, which are always fun to play with.

Shadow Phoenix Brooch: It has great stat boosts and is interesting as a counterpart to Samukematsuri Oni Mask. We do have very stiff competition from Sunburst Amulet for Fire Burns especially, but I like the extra option.

As a side note: on the topic of FSBs, I would be interested in learning when exactly they can be applied. The 2020 Frostval Giftbox set had multiple FSBs due to the nature of the "set," and the Winter Donation Contest items similarly had an FSB. However, if we look back, this is pretty irregular behavior. We usually do not have FSBs on Frostval Giftbox sets, and we similarly do not have FSBs on Winter Donation Contest items. Is there a pattern to this because I really do enjoy FSBs since they're so rare?

Post #: 121

2/3/2022 17:17:58

GwenMay
Member

FSBs are sorta unpredictable. My guess is that the deciding factors are 1) whether the set is important enough to warrant an FSB and 2) whether there is something the staff wants the items to do that a FSB would help with. $100 sets seem to be the most likely to get a FSB (e.g. champion sets, doomlights, chaosborn, zombie hunter, legion shogun, king's reign), but they don't always have FSBs either (e.g. protoparagon). Other than those sets, we get FSBs on both f2p and premium gear basically at random.

I just thought the gear should have FSBs considering that the item Shadow Phoenix wep is a clone of has one, as well as the FSBs on the previous two donation events (Frostwyrm and Nutcracker/Brightslayer). But there really isn't a consistent standard that I can see to say an item *must* have a FSB.

AQW

Epic

Post #: 122

2/6/2022 10:05:30

.*. .*. .*.
Pfft hahaha!

Really interesting items and for me the ice weapon and fire shield will remain in my active inventory because they fit my current way of playing.
I am sure I will use the other items for certain situations but for now they will be moved to my inventory.

I was hoping the fire weapon would be a bit different, it would have definitely stayed in my active inventory if it was toggable just like the meteoid jelly pet and let me pick what type of regen I need for that particular battle, but who knows maybe one day we will get a weapon like that?

Anyhow all in all I am pleased with the items and I am looking forward to the Ballyhoo shop so I can transfer some items.

Post #: 123

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